The participants agreed that the identified issues were important and suggested the inclusion of several other topics, including impacts on coastal and rural areas and people, forests, and agriculture. A. Kleypas, 2009: Ocean acidification: The other CO2 problem. During the 2010s, the number of nights with minimum temperatures greater than 75F was nearly double the long-term average for 19011960 (Figure 19.1), while the length of the freeze-free season was nearly 1.5 weeks greater than any other period in the historical record (Figure 19.2). B. Meylan, P. A. Meylan, J. Doyle, T. W., T. J. Smith III, and Michael B. Robblee, 1995: Wind damage effects of Hurricane Andrew on mangrove communities along the southwest coast of Florida, USA. Flooding events are highly variable in both space and time. Copyright & Legal Disclaimer Uncertainties in the range of potential future changes in multiple and concurrent facets of climate and land-use change also affect our ability to predict changes to natural systems. The annual mean projected losses are roughly halved (0.28 billion labor hours) and with a model range from 0.19 to 0.43 billion labor hours lost under RCP4.5 by 2090.35. Allen, C. D., A. K. Macalady, H. Chenchouni, D. Bachelet, N. McDowell, M. Vennetier, T. Kitzberger, A. Rigling, D. D. Breshears, E. H. Hogg, P. Gonzalez, R. Fensham, Z. Zhang, J. Castro, N. Demidova, J.-H. Lim, G. Allard, S. W. Running, A. Semerci, and N. Cobb, 2010: A global overview of drought and heat-induced tree mortality reveals emerging climate change risks for forests. Florida Climate Institute, Gainesville, FL, 20 pp. Many of these urban areas are rapidly growing and offer opportunities to adopt effective adaptation efforts to prevent future negative impacts of climate change (very likely, high confidence). before making use of copyrighted material. According to the article, [b]ecause losses are largest in regions that are already poorer on average, climate change tends to increase preexisting inequality in the United States.11 Understanding the demographic and socioeconomic composition of racial and ethnic groups in the region is important, because these characteristics are associated with health risk factors, disease prevalence, and access to care, which in turn may influence the degree of impact from climate-related threats. In addition, high levels of migration, whether into or out of an area, can lead to unemployment, depending on how businesses grow or adapt to change. Along the coast, for example, warmer winter temperatures are expected to allow mangrove forests to move northward and replace salt marshes (Figures 19.16 and 19.17).135,149,150,151,152 Coastal wetlands, like mangrove forests and salt marshes, are abundant in the Southeast.153,154 The societal benefits provided by coastal wetlands are numerous.119 Hence, where coastal wetlands are abundant (for example, the Mississippi River Delta), their cumulative value can be worth billions of dollars each year and trillions of dollars over a 100-year period.155 Coastal wetlands provide seafood, improve water quality, provide recreational opportunities, reduce erosion, support food webs, minimize flooding impacts, and support high rates of carbon sequestration.118 Foundation species are species that create habitat and support entire ecological communities.156,157 In coastal wetlands and many other ecosystems, foundation plant species play an especially important role. Rural communities are integral to the Southeasts cultural heritage and to the strong agricultural and forest products industries across the region. Sources/Usage: Public Domain. 14: Human Health, KM 1). Chavez-Ramirez, F., and W. Wehtje, 2012: Potential impact of climate change scenarios on whooping crane life history. These risks vary in type and magnitude from place to place, and while some climate change impacts, such as sea level rise and extreme downpours, are being acutely felt now, others, like increasing exposure to dangerously high temperaturesoften accompanied by high humidityand new local diseases, are expected to become more significant in the coming decades. Doyle, T. W., K. W. Krauss, W. H. Conner, and A. S. From, 2010: Predicting the retreat and migration of tidal forests along the northern Gulf of Mexico under sea-level rise. Today, even rural residents who engage in farming earn most of their incomes from off-farm employment. Flood events in Charleston, South Carolina, have been increasing, and by 2045 the city is projected to face nearly 180 tidal floods (flooding in coastal areas at high tide) per year, as compared to 11 floods per year in 2014.45 These floods affect tourism, transportation, and the economy as a whole. Price, P. Chinowsky, L. Wright, L. Ludwig, R. Streeter, R. Jones, J. doi: Sallenger, A. H., K. S. Doran, and P. A. Howd, 2012: Hotspot of accelerated sea-level rise on the Atlantic coast of North America. Conner, W. H., T. W. Doyle, and K. W. Krauss, Eds., 2007: Ecology of Tidal Freshwater Forested Wetlands of the Southeastern United States. Coral reefs are biologically diverse ecosystems that provide many societal benefits, including coastal protection from waves, habitat for fish, and recreational and tourism opportunities.238,239 However, coral reef mortality in the Florida Keys and across the globe has been very high in recent decades, due in part to warming ocean temperatures, nutrient enrichment, overfishing, and coastal development.240,241,242,243,244 Small increases in ocean temperature can cause corals to expel the symbiotic algae upon which they depend for nourishment. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), Regional Climate Centers (RCC), . USDA, National Agricultural Statistical Service (NASS), Washington, DC, accessed July 18, 2017. NOAA NCEI, 2018: Billion-Dollar Weather and Climate Disasters [web page]. The core of the states peanut, cotton, and vegetable industry is here. For example, the Louisville, Kentucky, metro government conducted an urban heat management study and installed 145,000 square feet of cool roofs as part of their goal to lessen the risk of climate change impacts.28, The transmission of vector-borne diseases, which are spread by the bite of an animal such as a mosquito or tick, is complex and depends on a number of factors, including weather and climate, vegetation, animal host populations, and human activities (Ch. If he adds one additional crew member, he wont increase his landings. For example, non-metropolitan Harnett County sits between metropolitan Wake County to the north and Cumberland County to the south, making work possible in cities from Raleigh and Fayetteville. For example, citrus species are sensitive to freezing and chilling temperatures.148 However, in the future, climate change is expected to enable the survival of citrus in areas that are north of the current tolerance zone.142, The effects of changing winters reach far beyond just agricultural and garden plants. The combined effects of rising numbers of high tide flooding and extreme rainfall events, along with deteriorating storm water infrastructure, are increasing the frequency and magnitude of coastal and lowland flood events.45,88,89,90, The recent increases in flood risk have led many cities and counties to take adaptive actions to reduce these effects. Done, 2017: Economic effectiveness of implementing a statewide building code: The case of Florida. Cross-disciplinary groups such as the Georgia Climate Project (http://www.georgiaclimateproject.org) are developing research roadmaps that can help to prioritize research and action with relevance to policymakers, practitioners, and scientists. See popular questions & answers about Coastal Plains Animal Clinic. Credits The Northern Atlantic Coastal Plain (NACP) aquifer system occupies a land area of more than 30,000 square miles and a total area of 50,000 square miles along the eastern seaboard of the United States from Long Island, New York, southward to the northeastern part of North Carolina. In fact, the economic structures of rural places increasingly mirror their urban counterparts. Vergs, A., P. D. Steinberg, M. E. Hay, A. G. B. Poore, A. H. Campbell, E. Ballesteros, K. L. Heck, D. J. Booth, M. A. Coleman, D. A. Feary, W. Figueira, T. Langlois, E. M. Marzinelli, T. Mizerek, P. J. Mumby, Y. Nakamura, M. Roughan, E. van Sebille, A. S. Gupta, D. A. Smale, F. Tomas, T. Wernberg, and S. K. Wilson, 2014: The tropicalization of temperate marine ecosystems: Climate-mediated changes in herbivory and community phase shifts. U.S. Geological Survey, Reston, VA, 76 pp. The city has responded by making physical modifications, developing a more robust disaster response plan, and improving planning and monitoring prior to flood events. Eight of those counties lost more than 5% of their population during this time: Northampton (-10.1%), Washington (-9.1%), Bertie (-9.7%), Tyrrell (-8.1%), Hyde (-7.8%), Martin (-7.0%), Halifax (-6.1%) and Warren (-5.4%).1. Census Bureau, 2015: Press release: New Census Bureau Population Estimates Reveal Metro Areas and Counties That Propelled Growth in Florida and the Nation. The vibrancy and viability of these metropolitan areas, including the people and critical regional resources located in them, are increasingly at risk due to heat, flooding, and vector-borne disease brought about by a changing climate. In pursuing economic Products Coastal Plains A. Mayor's Office, Charleston, SC, 17 pp. Exposure to high nighttime minimum temperatures reduces the ability of some people to recover from high daytime temperatures, resulting in heat-related illness and death.26 This effect is particularly pronounced in cities, many of which have urban heat islands that already cause elevated nighttime temperatures.27 Cities are taking steps to prevent negative health impacts from heat. Many southeastern cities are particularly vulnerable to climate change compared to cities in other regions, with expected impacts to infrastructure and human health. Kennedy, J. P., M. W. Pil, C. E. Proffitt, W. A. Boeger, A. M. Stanford, and D. J. Devlin, 2016: Postglacial expansion pathways of red mangrove, Rhizophora mangle, in the Caribbean Basin and Florida. Kunkel, A. Lascurain, D. Marcy, M. Osland, and P. Schramm, 2018: Southeast. Jacobson, E. R., D. G. Barker, T. M. Barker, R. Mauldin, M. L. Avery, R. Engeman, and S. Secor, 2012: Environmental temperatures, physiology and behavior limit the range expansion of invasive Burmese pythons in southeastern USA. The combined effects of changing extreme rainfall events and sea level rise are already increasing flood frequencies, which impacts property values and infrastructure viability, particularly in coastal cities. In the Southeast, over 56% of land remains rural (nonmetropolitan) and home to approximately 16 million people, or about 17% percent of the regions population.250 These rural areas are important to the social and economic well-being of the Southeast. The size of a business operation and the markets it can sell to impact its effectiveness and efficiency. Liu, Y., J. Stanturf, and S. Goodrick, 2010: Trends in global wildfire potential in a changing climate. Bjorndal, K. A., A. Recent changes in metropolitan-nonmetropolitan migration streams. The Coastal Plains has other resources such as fish, grain, citrus fruits, poultry, and helium is also produced there. The regions more tropical ecosystems include mangrove forests, coral reefs, pine savannas, and the tropical freshwater wetlands of the Everglades. Piedmont Region. - A. Collazo, R. Wershoven, V. Guzmn Hernndez, T. B. Stringell, A. Sanghera, P. B. Richardson, A. C. Broderick, Q. Phillips, M. Calosso, J. See Guide to this Report for more on Boucek, R. E., and J. S. Rehage, 2014: Climate extremes drive changes in functional community structure. Recent social science studies have indicated that people may migrate from many coastal communities that are vulnerable to the impacts of sea level rise, high tide flooding, saltwater intrusion, and storm surge.71 Even though many communities are starting to develop adaptation strategies to address current flooding issues, many adaptation strategies are not being designed for longer time horizons and more extreme worst-case climate scenarios.1,67, For the United States, 2017 was a historic year for weather and climate disasters, with widespread impacts and lingering costs. | Adaptation, mitigation, and planning efforts are emphasizing co-benefits (positive benefits related to the reduction of greenhouse gases or implementation of adaptation efforts) to help boost the economy while protecting people and infrastructure. Pan, Z., R. W. Arritt, E. S. Takle, W. J. Gutowski Jr., C. J. Anderson, and M. Segal, 2004: Altered hydrologic feedback in a warming climate introduces a warming hole.. Tallahassee, FL. Gray, R. Hardy, B. Brost, M. Bresette, J. C. Gorham, S. Connett, B. V. S. Crouchley, M. Dawson, D. Hayes, C. E. Diez, R. P. van Dam, S. Willis, M. Nava, K. M. Hart, M. S. Cherkiss, A. G. Crowder, C. Pollock, Z. Hillis-Starr, F. A. Muoz Tenera, R. Herrera-Pavn, V. Labrada-Martagn, A. Lorences, A. Negrete-Philippe, M. M. Lamont, A. M. Foley, R. Bailey, R. R. Carthy, R. Scarpino, E. McMichael, J. Seminole Tribe of Florida. coastal Warmer winter temperatures are also expected to facilitate the northward movement of problematic invasive species, which could transform natural systems north of their current distribution. Morton, J. F., 1978: Brazilian pepperIts impact on people, animals and the environment. While urban areas such as Baton Rouge and Lafayette were hit the hardest, receiving upwards of 30 inches in a few days, coastal locations were also inundated with up to 20 inches of rain. Hence, the loss and/or replacement of foundation plant species, like salt marsh grasses, will have ecological and societal consequences in certain areas.135,145,157,158,159,160,161,162,163,164 While salt marsh and mangrove wetlands both contain valuable foundation species, some of the habitat and societal benefits provided by existing salt marsh habitats will be affected by the northward expansion of mangrove forests.145,158,160,161,164,165. Higher sea levels will cause the storm surges from tropical storms to travel farther inland than in the past, impacting more coastal properties. 10: Ag & Rural, KM 3). The Coastal Plains - The Regions of Texas Carolinas Integrated Sciences & Assessments (CISA), Columbia, SC, 4 pp. Reduction of existing stresses can increase resilience. They are found in the different sub-regions called: Post Oak-Belt, Piney Woods, and the Blackland Prairies. Thomson Reuters. Kopp, R. E., A. C. Kemp, K. Bittermann, B. P. Horton, J. P. Donnelly, W. R. Gehrels, C. C. Hay, J. X. Mitrovica, E. D. Morrow, and S. Rahmstorf, 2016: Temperature-driven global sea-level variability in the Common Era. A study of hazard management plans (20042008) in 84 selected rural southeastern counties found these plans scored low across various criteria.288 The rural, geographically remote locations contributed to more difficult logistics in reaching people. Kunkel, K.L.M. NOAA RCC, 2017: xmACIS2 [Applied Climate Information System online tool]. Attaway, J. Kreye, J. K., J. M. Varner, J. K. Hiers, and J. Mola, 2013: Toward a mechanism for eastern North American forest mesophication: Differential litter drying across 17 species. The Southeasts coastal plain and inland low-lying regions support a rapidly growing population, a tourism economy, critical industries, and important cultural resources that are highly vulnerable to climate change impacts. NOAA National Weather Service, Silver Spring, MD, various pp. (See the counties in orange in Figure 2). The previous record year was 2005 with a total of $214.8 billion (in 2017 dollars; $208.4 billion in 2015 dollars), which included the impacts of Hurricanes Dennis, Katrina, Rita, and Wilma.99, In 2017, Hurricane Irma was one of three major hurricanes to make landfall in the United States and territories, with the most significant impacts occurring in the Southeast region. Climate change is expected to intensify the hydrologic cycle and increase the frequency and severity of extreme events. Synthesis Report. Avery, D.R. U.S. U.S. A. Martinich, K. C. Shouse, and C. W. Wobus, 2013: Quantifying and valuing potential climate change impacts on coral reefs in the United States: Comparison of two scenarios. Park, J. Marra, C. Zervas, and S. Gill, 2014: Sea Level Rise and Nuisance Flood Frequency Changes Around the United States. A. Maynard, G. Diaz-Pulido, P. J. Mumby, P. A. Marshall, L. Cao, and O. V. E. Hoegh-Guldberg, 2011: Ocean acidification and warming will lower coral reef resilience. Stocks, and B. M. Wotton, 2001: Climate change and forest disturbances: Climate change can affect forests by altering the frequency, intensity, duration, and timing of fire, drought, introduced species, insect and pathogen outbreaks, hurricanes, windstorms, ice storms, or landslides. Upper Coastal Plain Spanger-Siegfried, E., M. Fitzpatrick, and K. Dahl, 2014: Encroaching Tides: How Sea Level Rise and Tidal Flooding Threaten U.S. East and Gulf Coast Communities over the Next 30 Years. Important industrial clusters in the rural coastal region include aerospace and defense, food processing and manufacturing, and energy, among others. - Products: Tobacco products, informational technology. NOAAs National Weather Service (NWS) issues coastal flood advisories and warnings when water levels at tide gauges are expected to exceed flood thresholds.

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